The ARR (Absolute Risk Reduction) Calculator

This tool runs locally in your browser. Your physiological data (LDL-C, Baseline Risk) is never transmitted, stored, or tracked.

Visual Absolute Risk Audit

Move the levers below to calculate your true N-of-1 clinical benefit. The chart visualizes your Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR) over a 10-year period.

10.0%
4.0 mmol/L
40%

10-Year Event Probability (100% Scale)

Risk WITHOUT Statin 10.0%
Risk WITH Statin 6.9%
Absolute Risk Reduction 3.1%
Number Needed to Treat 32

Where the Math Comes From

This calculator does not invent new medicine; it simply translates the medical establishment’s own peer-reviewed survival math into an interactive N-of-1 reality. If your physician questions these numbers, direct them to the following foundational texts:

  • The Framework (Thanassoulis et al., 2016):

    This paper established the "Individualized Statin Benefit" model, proving that absolute risk reduction is highly dependent on baseline LDL-C, not just a 10-year risk guess.

    • Reference: Thanassoulis G, et al. Individualized Statin Benefit for Determining Statin Eligibility in the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease. Circulation. 2016;133:1574-1581

  • The Formula (Kohli-Lynch et al., 2022): This health-economics paper details the survival analysis equation used by international health boards to model the true cost-effectiveness of statin therapy.

    • Reference: Kohli-Lynch CN, et al. Beyond 10-Year Risk: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Statins for the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease. Circulation. 2022;145:1312-1323.

  • The Hazard Ratio (The CTT Collaboration): The engine of this calculator relies on the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists’ defining meta-analysis, which dictates that every 1.0 mmol/L (~38.6 mg/dL) reduction in LDL-C yields a 22% Relative Risk Reduction (a Hazard Ratio of 0.78).

    • Reference: Cholesterol Treatment Trialists’ (CTT) Collaborators. The effects of lowering LDL cholesterol with statin therapy in people at low risk of vascular disease: meta-analysis of individual data from 27 randomised trials. Lancet. 2012;380(9841):581-590.

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Disclaimer: This calculator is an educational and research tool. It is not a medical device. The information, analysis, and outputs provided by this software are not intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. Do not disregard professional medical advice or delay in seeking it because of something you have read here